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Daily analysis 27.09.2013

, Autor:

Marcin Lipka

Another day for us and the next 24 hours without any major changes. The next series of posts the members of the Federal Reserve. Next week should be much more exciting. The Polish gold is also boring.

[ h4 ] The most important macro data (time CET - Central European ) . Estimates of economic data are based on information from Bloomberg , unless otherwise indicated [ EH4 ] [ ul ] [li ] No key data that could significantly affect the currency pairs analyzed . [ If ] [ eul ] [ h4 ] Waiting . Two to one. Next week [ EH4 ] [p ] The next day alone on EUR / USD for us. Main currency pair behaves as if all hedge funds have left the market or remembered about past holidays. As I wrote yesterday that long consolidation at some point is disturbed and then return volatility with multiplied force. The chances that such consolidation lasted for weeks are close to zero . [ ep ] [p ] Today again we had a series of occurrences of the members of the FOMC. This time advantage over the hawks pigeons was two to one. Starting with the former definitely is worth quoting their ideas . Voters in the next year with the Minneapolis Fed chief said that
you should do everything possible to [ famous statement used over a year ago by Mario Draghi'ego ] to keep monetary stimuli
in order to stimulate the labor market,
even though it increased the possibility of exceeding dwuprocentowego the inflation projection
and the risk that the price of
assets reached extremely high levels .
To put it in simpler language to Kocherlakota 's monetary policy was mild enough to allow the growth of employment regardless of the future costs of such actions. In turn, one of the members of the Board of Governors of the Fed , Jeremy Stein said yesterday in Frankfurt to link the level of unemployment / employment strictly limited quantitative easing giving the example that QE should be cut automatically by a predefined amount , at a time when unemployment drops by 0.1 per cent . Such an idea , however, has already appeared in the June
Minutes
, but has been found that it significantly reduces the flexibility of monetary policy. Finally, it should provide a view of an outspoken hawk Fed Esther George ( voted to this year) . She said that
removes the prospect [ QE ] not only allows you to increase the potential costs of an operation , but also increases the risk of losing credibility and predictability of future monetary measures .
Taking into account the number of occurrences of the members of the Federal Reserve and their different view of the same data , it is noteworthy that the building of consensus at subsequent meetings can be even more difficult , and thus the uncertainty as to future decisions will remain high all the time (even when it starts tapering more decision to further reduce the QE or until the end of the operation will continue to be the main topics on the market) .

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