Afternoon analysis 08.03.2016:
The weak Chinese reports only briefly affected the markets. The zloty rebounded in the second part of the session. The major central banks may support the Polish currency.
Risk aversion on Tuesday was due to weak numbers that came from China. As a result, the major stock indexes and emerging market currencies dropped. Moreover, commodities prices also declined.
Today's report showed that the Chinese export dropped by the most in six years. On February export dropped 25.4 percent against the minus 12 percent forecast. Import dropped 13.8 percent against the minus 10 percent forecast. It was the 16th decline in a row. Given the situation, the trade surplus narrowed to 32.6 billion dollars against the 50.1 billion dollars forecast.
However, the Chinese foreign trade data is very volatile in the beginning of year. Thus, the report is not accurate enough to built long term expectations.
The other issue is that the Chinese government has recently announced fiscal stimulus. Moreover, it plans to revamp state-owned companies and pursue the plan to liberalize financial markets. Earlier the People's Bank of China has said it will conduct more loose policy.
Given the situation, the anxiety concerning China receded. Moreover, the Chinese government is willing to support the GDP growth in wider extent. In addition, the broad market sentiment is supported by the expectations the major central banks will be more dovish.
Expectations before the ECB
Investors expect the ECB will cut deposit rate by 10 basis points and increase the level of monthly asset purchases by 15 billion euros. Moreover, the Frankfurt-based institution may extend the asset purchase program beyond the first quarter of 2017.
Today's very good data from Germany rather did not affect the expectations. The production growth stood at 3.3 percent on a monthly basis. It was the largest gain since September 2009. However, earlier reports on the German economy were rather negative. Moreover, the ECB's major goal is inflation rate, that remains way below the target of 2 percent.
And finally, the Federal Reserve may support the markets. The US central bank meeting is scheduled in the next week. Given the latest data on wages (0.1 percent drop) the Fed may decide to lower the pace of interest rate hikes. A similar scenario will support risk appetite in the markets and may result in rising commodities prices and emerging market currencies.
However, the US central bank may present more hawkish stance. A similar scenario would negatively affect the market sentiment. But it is not very likely.
In the first part of the session the zloty dropped. The Polish currency declined due to the Chinese anxiety. But in the second part of the day the zloty recouped earlier losses.
In the coming days the Fed and the ECB will unveil their plans. If the major central banks loosen their stance, the zloty may increase. Moreover, the Polish currency may gain support from the Monetary Policy Council as it will present rather a hawkish stance on Friday.
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