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Daily analysis 17.06.2013

, Autor:

Marcin Lipka

The EUR/USD is still holding above 1.3300. Sharp fall of short positions on EUR/USD according to the CFTC. Investment banks' view on Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The Polish zloty is trying to find a short-term balance.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • 14.30 CET: Empire Manufacturing (survey 0.00)

Much less shorts on the EUR/USD. What will Fed do on Wednesday?

The EUR/USD was able to hold 1.33 till the end of the week is clearly a signal confirming the bulls' strength. It is also worth to note a solid reduction on short positions on EUR/USD (weekly CFTC report). In two weeks the shorts were reduced from 84k to 7.5k. Not only the runaway form the dollar was pretty fast, but also we are getting closer to the equilibrium level. Usually when the “zero level” is crossed, the EUR/USD moves further with the trend by few hundred pips (more about the case in my analysis from January: /eng/news/daily-analysis/daily-analysis-07.01.2013 ).

The market is still divided regarding the Fed withdrawal from QE. Economist from Credit Suisse, Neal Soss, claimst that asset purchase tapering will start in September. Soss also adds that, “FOMC may say it needs “a few more months of data” to evaluate effect of fiscal drag on economy. On the other hand strategies from Barclays led by Rafiv Setia want to emphasis the inflation issue “acknowledgment of sharp fall in inflation break-evens would be dovish; characterization of long-term inflation expectations as “still anchored” hawkish. Additionally Barcalys says that it “would be hawkish if FOMC focuses only on unemployment rate and fails to recognize recent decline in payroll growth. Overall the bank sees that “market may pull forward the timing of first taper, currently seen in 4Q.

Summarizing it is sill more probable that we continue the bullish run with the target set at around 1.35. The level can be reached if Bernanke sounds pretty dovish. On the other hand if the EUR/USD falls under 1.3200 then we can expect a reversal on the eurodollar and we can continue the bearish move.

Stable zloty.

The zloty is close to the short-term equilibrium point. Its neutral stance can be set between 4.20-4.28 per euro. I don't expect that till Wednesday we can move either higher or lower. However in the second part of the week it is possible that much higher volatility (Fed, macro data both form Europe and Poland) can push the pair beyond mentioned levels.

It is scheduled that we will get some details on the pension reform this week. It will probably not affect the zloty especially that according to government officials' opinions the change will not be as radical as the one in Hungary.

Summarizing the Polish zloty should be stable both today and tomorrow. The volatility will pick up in the second part of the week.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate

Kurs EUR/USD 1.3250-1.3350 1.3350-1.3450 1.3150-1.3250
Kurs EUR/PLN 4.2200-4.2600 4.2000-4.2400 4.2400-4.2800
Kurs USD/PLN 3.1400-3.1800 3.1100-3.1500 3.1700-3.2100
Kurs CHF/PLN 3.4200-3.4600 3.4000-3.4400 3.4000-3.4400

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate.

Kurs GBP/USD 1.5650-1.5750 1.5750-1.5850 1.5550-1.5650
Kurs GBP/PLN 4.9500-4.9900 4.9700-5.0100 4.9300-4.9700

Overall technical situation on the analyzed pairs.

We are still bullish on the EUR/USD. The USD/PLN continues its sliding trend and EUR/PLN generated the sell signal.

Technicznie EUR/USD: the rise above 1.3300 is another bullish signal (will be even stronger if we close the week above that level). In the short-term there is a chance that we will be testing 1.35 and in the medium-term even 1.37.

Wykres

Technicznie EUR/PLN: the fall under 4.22 ends the rising trend and suggesting to close the long positions. The slide under 4.20 should generate the sell signal with the target around 4.12. Alternatively the rise over 4.28 will be bullish

Wykres

Technicznie USD/PLN: dolar/złoty szybko osiągnął pierwszy target – 3.15. Zejście poniżej 3.15 powinno dać sygnał na spadki w kierunku 3.08-3.10. Scenariusz alternatywny to wyjście ponad poziom 3.22.

Wykres

Technicznie CHF/PLN: the franc is also close to generate the sell signal (a fall under 3.40 ends its bullish trend).

Wykres

Technicznie GBP/PLN: also on the pound we are close to generate the sell signal (under 4.95). Falling under 4.95 generates the first target at 4.90. Rising over 5.02 should be bullish for the pair.

Wykres

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