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Daily analysis 22.11.2012

, Autor:

Marcin Lipka

EUR/USD around 1.2850. Only technical issues caused the delay of the Greek agreement – EU officials claim. Dovish comments from Fed’s Williams, better then expected PMI reading from China support the common currency. PLN is stable, and will be depended on the global sentiment.

Macro data:

  • 9.28 CET: preliminary PMI (services and production) for Germany
  • 9.58 CET: preliminary PMI (services and production) for the Euro-zone
  • 14.00 CET: Polish MPC minutes
  • NO session in the US today. Thanksgiving Day

The market believes Eurogroup claims concerning the fast ending of Greek negotiations.

Yesterday's fast rebound after the negative data form the Euro-zone finance ministers meeting was a bullish signal. Today we start trading around 1.2850 levels which is around 100 pips higher then the EUR/USD rate on Wednesday's morning. The main reason for the upside move is the broad market believe that the deal on Greece will be reached on the coming Monday. Besides the news from Europe the sentiment was lifted by dovish statements by FOMC member John Williams and the thirteen month high Chinese PMI reading.

85 billion QE3 during 2013? PMI from China shows expansion.

John Williams for the Wall Street Journal interview said that 85 billion QE is reasonable for the current economic conditions. He claims also that the mentioned amount “spend” on the MBS and Treasuries should be maintained through 2013. It means that Williams favors to exchange the expiring Operation Twist into Treasury purchase. It will be really interesting to see whether the FOMC on its 11-12 December meeting will allow the Twist to expire or replace it with additional monetary easing. Another positive news for the markets was the Chinese PMI reading. It was not only better then the data from previous month (October: 49.5; current: 50.4), but it also jumped the 50 mark level which separate the contraction for the expansion. It is also worth to mention that one PMI most important component (new export orders) changed its direction form contraction to expansion which can be an early sing of the coming global recovery.

More PMI data form Germany, and the Euro-zone.

The bulls probably would like to see the similar to Chinese reading form Germany, and other European nations. The bad news that it is not possible, but even fractionally better then expected data can support the sentiment which can eventually boost the common currency to the 1.2900 mark. Widely discussed EU 2014-2020 budget will not cause any market reaction. The budget is only 1% of the Euro-zone GDP.

PLN depended on the global sentiment.

Today the zloty should be discounting the positive global data. If the PMI from Europe beats the expectations it will be possible to test the 4.1000 level on PLN. I don't see any reaction form the Polish MPC minutes. The 25bp interest rate cut is already priced in, and market is also familiar with slowing growth and inflation.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.2750-1.2850 1.2650-1.2750 1.2650-1.2750
EUR/PLN 4.1600-4.1200 4.1700-4.1400 4.1200-4.1000
USD/PLN 3.2500-3.2100 3.2800-3.2400 3.2100-3.1800
CHF/PLN 3.4400-3.4100 3.4700-3.4400 3.4200-3.3900

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the closing above 200 DMA (1.2804) was bullish signal. The next key resistance level is around 1.2910 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 50 DMA).

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: EUR/PLN closed yesterday under strong resistance level around 4.1200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 50 DMA). In consequences it should be heading to the 4.1000 mark.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: is getting closer to 3.2000 mark ( 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and 50 DMA). Breaking this line should push the pair further lower even to 3.1300-3.1500. The resistance level is still 3.2500.

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: CHF/PLN is still around 3.4100. If this crucial support level will be broken the further slide is possible to around 3.35-3.37.

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