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Daily analysis 30.10.2012

, Autor:

Marcin Lipka

Yesterday’s session on EUR/USD was characterized by low volatility. U.S markets are closed, but the S&P 500 futures is around 0.5% lower.

Monday session lacked the emotion. The market traded around 1.2900 mark, and crossing that level back and forward many times. Despite the The Wall Street being closed investors can observe the S&P 500 future contracts which are traded around 0.5% lower then on Friday's closed.

At the end of Asian session Bank of Japan announced the increase second month in the row its asset purchase program . The BOJ added 11 trillion yen (138 billion dollars) to its QE, which was in the line of analysts' forecast. After the message hit the wires, the JPY weakened for a while, but later it strengthened considerably. Unusual moves were also observed on EUR/USD which firstly fell, but then bounced back above 1.2900 mark. This indecision was not only caused by low liquidity (information was given at the time of transition between the Asian and European session), but also due to closeness of key support levels (1.2900 in EUR / USD).

Some important data for EUR/USD will come from Italy and Spain. Investors will be watching the results of bond auction issued by the government in Rome. Yesterday the 10-year Italian yield bounced back above 5% due to deterioration of the global sentiment If the bit-to-cover ratio exceeds 1.33 (that ratio was during the last auction on September 27th) and the yield stays around 5% it will help the EUR/USD to stay above 1.2900.. Traders will also pay attention to the Spanish GDP. Better-than-expected data should help the common currency and improve the market sentiment. If, however, the reading misses expectations the morning optimism can quickly fade.

Yesterday the PLN was under pressure from the worsening sentiment. However, the changes were not significant (up to 0.02 PLN). Without comments from the MPC member Andrzej Raczko the volatility would had been even lower. Raczko said that short term weakness of the PLN will be positive for export, but in the long run the weaker zloty will cause more harm then good. As usually when such opinions weights on markets only in the short time. Similar situation was on Monday when the PLN weakened for a while, but then it returned to the previous levels.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

EUR/USD 1.2950-1.3050 1.3050-1.3150 1.2850-1.2950
EUR/PLN 4.1400-4.1200 4.1200-4.1000 4.1600-4.1400
USD/PLN 3.2000-3.1600 3.1600-3.1200 3.2300-3.2000
CHF/PLN 3.4300-3.4100 3.4100-3.39 3.4500-3.4300

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the technical situation is improving on EUR/USD. The 1.2900 level is served as a strong support again. If we bounce back above 1.3050 the recent falls will negated and the buy signal will be generated. On the other hand if the common currency closes below 1.2900 then the probability for further slide increases and the first target for this move is around 1.2740-60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 200 DMA).

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: in the EUR/PLN case the bullish scenario is more possible with the first target around 4.17-4.18 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). To negate the recent moves the PLN should appreciate to around 4.1000 level.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: also on the USD/PLN pair the upside move is more possible with the first target around 3.2700. Only the come back below 3.1400 changes the tendency.

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the pair is prone to rise to around 3.4700 mark (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 200 DMA).

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