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Afternoon analysis 08.05.2015

, author:

Piotr Lonczak

Rate of EUR/USD drops after publication of mixed data from the American labour market. The pound is quite stable, despite the ambiguities concerning the result of elections. The zloty worked off a part of its losses in relation to the euro and franc.

The Challenger report about the amount of planned dismissals, indicated that disadvantageous tendencies on the American labour market are growing stronger. This is because the companies intend to reduce the number of employees by almost 62 thousand in April. It is definitely a higher result than the barely 37 thousand reported one month ago.

On the other hand, the weekly data about the newly unemployed were not disappointing. The amount of applications for unemployment benefits, has dropped by 3 thousand, down to 265 thousand. This result was much better than the expected 278 thousand, and thanks to it the bad impression caused by recent data concerning the situation on the American labour market has decreased. The number of people applying for help for the unemployed, and people who continue to receive the benefits, is currently the lowest in fifteen years.

However, before the publication of Friday's report from the labour market, there are no greater reasons to be satisfied. It has a crucial meaning, that today's data are from a different period than those included in the mentioned document. On the other hand, the weak ADP data from Wednesday (only 169 thousand new employees in the private sector) and publication concerning the planned amount of dismissals, do not bring in much optimism.

The pound is quite calm

Elections in the United Kingdom did not cause any big changes on the pound. The British currency is quite calm today.

It is still unclear who will govern, or which parties will create the coalition. It was assumed, that a multitude of scenarios in the United Kingdom will fuel the variability. The most pessimistic versions relate to the concept of Scotland's independence, and the UK's departure from the European Union.

The pound may be more willing to react, when the first results of the elections will appear. It will allow speculations about the new government to begin, and the parties creating it. At the same time, if a clearer scenario will appear, the British currency will adjust to it.

The zloty stops the descent

The second part of the session was definitely better for the zloty than the morning trade. The Polish currency managed to work off a significant part of losses made earlier. In the case of the EUR/PLN rate, the zloty managed to cancel the losses, and gain.

The ministry of finance has decided on the cancellation of the bonds' auction. All happened due to very disadvantageous conditions on the debt market. From the beginning of the year, the profitability of Polish bonds was increasing. The increase scale has accelerated after today's session, which ultimately convinced the ministry to undertake such actions. The current nervous correction on the bonds' market, will be rather short. It awakes expectations for the conditions of selling the Polish bonds, to become much better.

The ministry of labour has informed, that in April the unemployment rate has decreased to 11.3 percent, in relation to 11.7 percent the previous month. Thus, the report confirms the opinion, that the revival on the labour market is strong. It is an optimistic prognosis for the Polish economy for the next part of the year.

We are currently dealing with a stratum of risk factors. However, they will have a temporary character. It allows us to expect the zloty to return to appreciation.


This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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