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Daily analysis 03.11.2015

, author:

Marcin Lipka

The tone of yesterday's announcements is not enough to generate an impulse on the EUR/USD. The Australian dollar became slightly stronger after the RBA meeting. The zloty stabilizes in the area of 4.25 per euro, before tomorrow's MPC meeting, and the outline of a report about inflation.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.

  • No data that could have a significant impact on the analysed currency pairs.

Anticipation

Yesterday's publication of the American ISM was mixed. Attention was especially focused on a low sub-index of future employment in industry. Not only has it decreased below 50 points, but also achieved the lowest level since the second half of 2009, which is 47.6 points. On the other hand, the components describing new orders and production were slightly better – both achieved 52.9 points.

Theoretically, the new orders can be taken as the most important element which accelerates the industry. However, a weak reading of employment may burden Friday’s payrolls. Besides, in September as well as in August, the amount of workplaces in the American industry decreased respectively by 9 and 18 thousand. Thus, the publications need to be considered as neutral in the context of the dollar.

Yesterday the market also speculated that the interview with Mario Draghi conducted by Il Sole 24 on the weekend, suggests that the EBC does not have to ease the monetary policy in December. The information agencies quoted the chairman of the eurozone's monetary authorities. He was to claim that the further stimulations are “an open question”, and that “we will see, if further easing is necessary”.

However, after reading the whole interview published on the EBC website, it became clear that Draghi did not withdraw from any elements suggested during the recent press conference. The monetary authorities are determined to reach the inflation goal, by using a wide range of instruments. Besides, withdrawing from the plan of further easing of monetary policy would cause significant appreciation on the euro. And this is probably the last thing that EBC wants right now.

RBA appeared less dovish

During today's meeting the Australian monetary authorities decided to leave the interest rates at the level of 2%. This decision was expected by 12 out of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest claimed that the RBA will cut the cost of credit by 25 base case points.

On the other hand, there was a visible change in the last paragraph of the RBA announcement. The Australian central bank took note that “in the recent months the economic condition slightly improved”, which justifies leaving interest rates on the current level. However, the RBA also wrote that “the members will continue to observe the inflation perspective that may allow for the further easing of the monetary policy, if it is necessary in order to support the demand”.

Thus, in general the announcement was less dovish than expected. The chance for a decrease in interest rates became smaller. The FRA 6x9 contracts which show the three-month interest rate for half a year, increased since yesterday from 1.83% to 1.91%. The AUD/USD pair is also higher.

However, it is worth noting that the further condition of Australia is mainly dependant on the demand on raw materials. Thus, if there is no rebound on their prices, and Chinese economy does not decide to stimulate investments, the RBA will again be under pressure of a decrease in interest rates. This will happen even in the case of an increase in consumption, or the real estate market. This on the other hand (combined with anticipated monetary tightening in the USA), may cause the pressure on the AUD/USD to return in the weeks after a moment of rebound. A depreciation below 0.70 will then become the base case scenario.

Few words about the foreign market

The EUR/USD remains stable, and today the main currency pair will probably not go much further from the area of 1.10. However, we can receive some stronger signals from the American economy tomorrow – the ADP report, and the service ISM. If they are not coherent with quite optimistic anticipations (respectively 180k and 56.5 points), the dollar should slightly gain on value, and before Friday's payrolls the EUR/USD can be closer to 1.09 than 1.10.

Stabilisation

The elections effect on the zloty slowly fades away. However, the matters of the new minister of finances, modification of the budget, and uncertainty related to the new MPC members, continue to cause the EUR/PLN to be a few groszy higher, than it would result in the historical comparison of the quotations of the PLN and HUF.

Tomorrow on the other hand, the investors should focus on the MPC meeting, and the outline of new macroeconomic projections in November's report about inflation. It is possible that the path of inflation, as well as an increase in the GDP for 2016, can be reviewed slightly downwards. This would be a good argument for the new MPC members, who will begin their term of office in January and February. However, for the time being an impact on the zloty should not cross 0.01-0.02 PLN. Thus, the base case scenario in general is the EUR/PLN remaining in the limits of 4.25 and the franc in the area of 3.90 PLN.

Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.0950-1.1050 1.1050-1.1150 1.0850-1.0950
Range EUR/PLN 4.2400-4.2800 4.2400-4.2800 4.2400-4.2800
Range USD/PLN 3.8600-3.9000 3.8200-3.8600 3.9000-3.9400
Range CHF/PLN 3.9000-3.9400 3.9000-3.9400 3.9000-3.9400

Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/USD rate:

Range GBP/USD 1.5350-1.5450 1.5250-1.5350 1.5450-1.5550
Range GBP/PLN 5.9200-5.9600 5.8800-5.9200 5.9600-6.0000

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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