Daily analysis 06.11.2012

, author:

Marcin Lipka

EUR/USD is close to the recent days lows. U.S stock market is waiting for the election results.

The situation on the EUR/USD has calmed after the Friday's slide. However, there is still more downside risk concerning the common currency. The main reason is not the upcoming U.S election but returning issues with the European Peripheries. Unsolved case with the Spanish bailout (Madrid has been postponing the decision), and persistent political/economical problems in Greece will be weighting on the currency markets in the following days.

Contradictory news is coming from Greece. Will the agreement be reached on November 12th?

Yesterday described the sequence of events in Greece is already not valid. The Parliament voting concerning the austerity measures will probably not be held on November 7th. Additionally there are some unofficial reports that during the Euro Zone finance ministers summit on November 12th the Euro Group will not approve the next aid tranche for Greece, and will not deal with Athens debt. On the other hand, the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said during the G20 meeting:” We need to have a common view on how to reduce the debt burden by the 12th of November”. According to Bloomberg he also told reporters:” I'm confident that we will be able to reach that common view”. Apart of Rehn claims it is almost certain that at least till November 12th we will observe the rapidly changing market sentiment.

48h strike in Athens starts today.

Today in Athens starts 48h strike both private and public sector workers. News flashes from the Greek capital will not improve the market sentiment. It will also not smooth the coalition discussion managed by the Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. This events in consequences will increase the uncertainty on the markets and can weaken the euro.

Polish zloty is stable even though the sentiment sinks. Yeild on 10 years bonds record low (4.38%).

PLN again resisted the downward pressure from the risk off sentiment. The main reason of the Polish zloty relative strength was the debt market. In the last two days the yields on 10-years bonds slide by 20 basis points. The successful auction of 5 year debt denominated in JPY and lack of new debt issuance caused the prices to rise, and and also lured yield-hungry investors. However, if the on bond reverses or significantly corrects it will cause the rapid depreciation of PLN.

Tomorrow the MPC decision will be published. It is almost certain that the benchmark rate will be lowered by 25 bp. Investors should pay attention to the conference which is set to be held at 16.00 CET, where some guidance concerning the expected come back to the inflation target will be announced.

Expected levels on PLN depending on EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.2750-1.2850 1.2850-1.2950 1.2650-1.2750
EUR/PLN4.1500-4.12004.1300-4.1100 4.1600-4.1300
USD/PLN3.2400-3.20003.2000-3.1700 3.2800-3.2400

Technical analysis EUR/USD: Monday didn't change the technical situation. I still expect the successful test of levels around 1.2750-1.2730 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), and then move toward 1.2600 (50% Fibonacci retracement level).

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: EUR/PLN was not able to break the 4.1200 level and come back to the the support set by 50 DMA (4.1050). Only the breakout above 4.1200 will signal the further depreciation of the PLN

Technical analysis USD/PLN: Yesterday’s correction from 3.2300 to 3.2100 has not changed the situation. It is still preferred the bullish move with the target around 3.2700-3.2900 (200 DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level).

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: CHF did not break above 3.4200 (downtrend line) and came back under 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Only the breakout above 3.4200 will generate buy signal and move toward 3.4650.

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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