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Daily analysis 11.04.2013

, author:

Marcin Lipka

The EUR/USD is fairly unchanged (currently at 1.3070). FED minutes didn't spur any action on the markets despite its relatively hawkish stance. Earlier publication of FOMC discussion was probably due to a mistake not intentional action. Yesterday's Polish MPC statement and the conference after the rate decision (unchanged) was quite dovish.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • ◦ 14.30 CET: Jobless claims from the States (survey 360k)

No reaction to the Minutes. Confusion with the FOMC publication.

Yesterday we had some surprises on the market. The first one was due to earlier publication of the Minutes. The March discussion was released 5 hours earlier then scheduled. Regarding the reason I please look to the 2nd paragraph. Lets now look at the FED's document. The main information, which will be probably widely discussed till the April's jobs data, is message that several (usually between 4 and 6 out of 12) FOMC members think” that if the outlook for the labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and stop them by year-end”. Additionally a few (usually between 2 and 4 out of 12) “felt that the risks and costs of purchases, along with the improved outlook since last fall, would likely make a reduction in the pace of purchases around midyear, with purchases ending later this year”. One FOMC member “judged that the pace of purchases should ideally be slowed immediately” and two members “ indicated that the purchases might well continue a the current pace at least through the end of the year. Moreover it was also noted “that were the outlook to deteriorate the pace of purchase could be increased”.

Not taking into account the recent economic data (mainly form the job market) the Minutes were pretty hawkish and should have had strengthened the dollar. However having in mind the weak NFP report (released after the March FOMC meeting), then it can be viewed as a neutral. Additionally the close attention will be paid to the next job data and investors will also be more closely watching the weekly jobless claims (more should put more pressure on the greenback and support the EUR/USD pair).

As I noted at the beginning FOMC published the “Minutes” 5 hours before the schedule (at 15.00 CET instead of at 20.00 CET). The reason was quite odd. One of the FED employee sent an email to days ago with the full text of the “Minutes” to recipients who work for investment banks (such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, UBS, JPMorgan and etc), politicians and other organizations form banking and insurance industry (in sum 154 people received the message on Tuesday). The rumors claiming that it was intentional, in my opinion, seems to be flawed in that particular example. The message was sent from the work email, to many recipients and the profile of the sender (brought by The Wall Street Journal in an article „Fed Flub Sparks New Data Concerns”) deny the intentional action. Furthermore the current “Minutes” had a low significance, because it didn't take into account the disappointing job data (I did also point it out yesterday). The other issue, however, is the policy of the Federal Reserve and the access to such sensitive material by its staff, but it is a different story.

Staying around 1.3100 level is pretty bullish for the EUR/USD. If we don't get any gloomy data from Europe, and today's jobless claims are above the market consensus, then we should expect a successful test of 1.3100 mark and further move to the north.

Dovish Polish MPC statement

Polish MPC members left the main interest rate, as expected, unchanged. A kind of surprise was quite dovish statement, were in contrary to the last last month when the Committee suggested the end of the recent cycle, Marek Belka and his fellows left the door open to the further cuts claiming the “the Council decisions in the following months will depend on the assessment of the incoming data with regard to the probability of inflation remaining markedly below the NBP inflation target in the medium term and regarding the economic activity”. The governor didn't want to speculate what level of the inflation will push the MPC to lower the rates but it is expected that if the incoming inflation readings (two) are below or near 1% then we should expect the cut in June (before the July's NBP inflation projection – previously it the moment when the benchmark was seen to be cut.

The zloty was fairly stable during the conference (or even slightly stronger with the bonds). It is possible, however, that it can be weaker in the following days or slow its appreciation on more dovish then expected Polish MPC statement.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

EUR/USD 1.2950-1.3050 1.3050-1.3150 1.2850-1.2950
EUR/PLN 4.1100-4.1500 4.1000-4.1400 4.1300-4.1700
USD/PLN 3.1500-3.1900 3.1200-3.1600 3.1900-3.2300
CHF/PLN 3.3700-3.4100 3.3600-3.4000 3.3900-3.4300

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:

GBP/USD 1.5250-1.5350 1.5350-1.5450 1.5150-1.5250
GBP/PLN 4.7900-4.8300 4.8100-4.8500 4.7700-4.8100

Overall technical situation on the analyzed pairs:

There has been no major change on both EUR/USD and Polish pairs. There is a higher probability for the further rise on the EUR/USD and more zloty strength to the foreign currencies.

Technical analysis EUR/USD: we did move above 1.3000 so it changes the overall tendency. The next resistance level is around 1.3150 (50 DMA) and in extension 1.3300 (from the last slide started). The alternative scenario (low probability now) is slide under 1.2850 (200 DMA and 50 % Fibonacci entrancement level) and extension of the bearish move toward 1.2700.

Wykres

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: we got another sell signal – slide under 4.1200). The next stop shoul be around 4.06 and in extension 4.03. The alternative scenario is range trade (4.15-4.20) but only after move over 4.1600.

Wykres

Technical analysis USD/PLN: the slide under 3.22-3.21 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 200 DMA) generated sell signal with the target around 3.1400, which actually was almost met yesterday. It is crucial whether we break 3.1400. If yes, we can expect in the medium term a move even toward 3.04. On the other hand if the support holds, then we should expect the range trade between 3.14-3.22.

Wykres

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: after sliding under 3.4000 we are in the well known territory (range 3.33-3.40). Another sell signal should be generated under 3.3300 level. If the 3.3300 support holds then the base case scenario is range trade between 3.33 and 3.40.

Wykres

Technical analysis GBP/PLN: a slight weakness on the pound does not negate the short term bullish trend. The base case scenario (short-term) is still move toward 5.0000 and an attempt to break it and change the medium term outlook. On the other hand a slide under 4.89 should be a trigger to close longs and under 4.85 to open new shorts (a come back to both short and medium term bearish trend).

Wykres

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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