Daily analysis 20.12.2012

, author:

Marcin Lipka

The never ending fiscal story put pressure on equities and currencies. Bank of Japan expanded its easing by 10 trillion yen (around 120 billion USD), but didn't rise its inflation target what finally resulted in JPY appreciation against USD and EUR. Calm session on the Polish market (EUR/PLN around 4.0750).

Macro data (CET- Central European Time):

  • 14.00 CET: core inflation in Poland
  • 14.30 CET: Final reading of U.S GDP (no impact predicted, because it is 3rd estimation)
  • 14.30 CET: weekly jobless claims in the States
  • 16.00 CET: existing home sales (USA)
  • 16.00 CET: Philly FED index (USA)

The cliff still threatens again.

At the end of U.S session the cliff buzz hit the markets again. This time the main reason of the sell off was worsening negotiations climate regarding the spending and revenue budget. The info was made public after the White House officials (including treasury secretary Timothy Geithner) meeting with leading industry representatives. What is interesting the source of the mentioned message is anonymous. I would not be surprised if that was another element of the political game between Democrats and Republicans. Apart of the source of the information it had quite an impact on the common currency. The EUR/USD slide around 50 pips to 1.3190. Daily EUR/USD technical situation significantly worsened. If we look at the chart and the long candlestick upper shadow it does not look bullish. However, on the other side the strongest move was observed during the low volume trade between the U.S and Asian session. The following days can be quite crucial for the single currency medium term trend.. The comeback to the recent highs will show the buyer commitment to end the year on the high side. Contrary closing the week under 1.3150 can result in deeper correction next week.

More QE from BOJ.

Investors were not happy with the morning BOJ decision. Despite spending 10 trillion yen more on QE (in line with market expectation) JPY strengthened after the announcement. As Reuters reports recent speculation suggested that the central bank will agree to increase its inflation target from 1% to 2% in 2013. The new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing for the higher target to spur growth and pull out the country from decade long stagnation. According to many analysts it can happen in 2013 what in result can weaken JPY further. If the recent correlation stays it will push higher EUR/USD, and give some boost to PLN.

PLN stable with the light uptrend.

Wednesday's session on PLN was fairly calm. The zloty resisted evening swings on EUR/USD after the cliff reports. It seems that we will be observing a calm trading till the Christmas. The situation can change if EUR/USD leaves range between 1.3150-1.3300. The downside breakout will result in some profit taking on PLN and Polish currency can depreciate to 4.1000 for EUR. On the other side in scenario when EUR/USD successfully breach 1.3300 (for example after the budget agreement) it can increase the risk appetite and push EUR/PLN pair to 4.0500.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.3150-1.3250 1.3250-1.3350 1.3050-1.3150
EUR/PLN 4.0900-4.0600 4.0800-4.0500 4.1000-4.0700
USD/PLN 3.1100-3.0800 3.0800-3.0500 3.1500-3.1100
CHF/PLN 3.3900-3.3600 3.3800-3.3500 3.4000-3.3700

Technical analysis EUR/USD: after reaching 1.3300 the single currency fall significantly (by more then 100 pips) living a long shadow on the candlestick chart. It can suggest a stronger correction if we close the week under 1.3150 (even to 1.3050 till the end of next week). If the pair holds aboce 1.3150 it can support bulls and increase chances for successful move above 1.3300 till the year ends.


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: technical situation has not changed much. Still we are in light downt trend with the target around 4.06 and then in extension 4.04. The strong resistance is in the range of 4.0800-4.1000 and the trend reversal is above 4.1200.


Technical analysis USD/PLN: yesterday we touched 3.0600 which is lower range of 3rd target suggested by technical analysis last week. Still dominates bearish trend with medium term target around 3.02.


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: we are still in the 3.37-3.39 range trade with higher chances to move lower then higher. The target for this pair is 3.3300 in the medium term.


This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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