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Daily analysis 27.09.2013

, author:

Marcin Lipka

Another day with low volatility and boring trading. The next set of statements from the FOMC members. In the following week we should have much more excitement on the EUR/USD. Polish zloty was again stable on Thursday.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • No key macroeconomic data today.

Standby. Two to one for doves. The next week

Thursday was another day with a calm trading. The EUR/USD looked like all asset managers took holidays after last week Fed's decision. As I wrote yesterday, such a long consolidation will disappear pretty soon and the main currency pair will come back to the volatile moves.

Yesterday we had another set of FOMC members' statements. This time doves outnumbered hawks by 2:1. Starting from the winners, the next year voting Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said that “Doing whatever it takes [kind of remarks to Draghi] will mean keeping a historically unusual amount of monetary stimulus in place – and possibly proving more stimulus – even as the medium-term inflation outlook temporarily rises above Fed's 2 percent goal and asset prices reach unusually high levels”. To make it simple he suggest that the Fed should do anything to lower the unemployment, no matter what the cost is. Moreover, the Fed's governor Jeremy Stain told reporters in Frankfurt that the Federal Reserve should strictly link QE to the unemployment rate “My personal preference would be to make future step-downs a completely deterministic function of a labor market indicator, such as unemployment rate or cumulative payroll growth over some period. For example, one could cut monthly purchases by a set amount of each further 10 basis point decline in the unemployment rate”. I remember that in June minutes there were some suggestions for such an idea, but it was dismissed do to taking too much flexibility from the Fed. At the end it is also worth to cite a well know hawk. Esther George (voting this year) said that “Delaying action [Fed's tapering] not only allows potential costs to grow, it also has the potential to threaten the credibility and the predictability of future monetary policy action. She also claims that there has been a “clear, ongoing improvement in the labor markets and other parts of the economy” and wants the FOMC not only to finish the QE, but also to “begin the long process of adjusting policy to more normal condition. Taking into the account all the opinions one can sometimes think whether Participants look at the same data. Additionally it is clear that the Committee will stay strongly divided concerning the future decisions (not only on winding down the asset purchase but also the pace of it and the end of the operation). It means that before incoming Fed's meetings we will have a substantial amount of uncertainty.

Incoming week should bring much more emotions. We are getting important macro data – both services and manufacturing ISMs, ECB rate decision and “the icing on the cake” NFP. I don't think that any data from the US can force the Fed to taper in October, but the EUR/USD will react to major eco reports from the States anticipating the probability of tapering in December.

Summarizing we should have another day with calm trading today. I don't expect any moves far from the 1.3500 level. However, the next week the situation will be opposite next week, when we are expected to see much more volatility.

The zloty is still pretty calm

There are no major impulses regarding the Polish zloty. However, similarly to the EUR/USD, the volatility should increase next week due to both local and global macroeconomic data. We have Polish PMI report and the result of the MPC meeting. The change of interest rates is not possible but Marek Belka can extend the “quasi forward guidance” till the Q1 of 2014 or give some remarks on recent “no decision” from the Fed.

Today we will probably have another boring day. Since the early morning both the Polish currency and both have been stable. The base case scenario is a range trade between 4.21-4.23 levels.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.3450-1.3550 1.3550-1.3650 1.3350-1.3450
Range EUR/PLN 4.2000-4.2400 4.2000-4.2400 4.2000-4.2400
Range USD/PLN 3.1100-3.1500 3.0800-3.1200 3.1600-3.2000
Range CHF/PLN 3.4000-3.4400 3.4000-3.4400 3.4000-3.4400

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate.

Range GBP/USD 1.5950-1.6050 1.6050-1.6150 1.5850-1.5950
Range GBP/PLN 4.9900-5.0300 5.0100-5.0500 4.9700-5.0100

A breakout above 1.3400 was another bullish signal for the EUR/USD and a confirmation for the move toward the next major target at 1.3650. All PLN pairs are in bearish trends.

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the next target for the EUR/USD is 1.3650 and in the extension even 1.4000. Sliding below 1.3400 generates a sell signal with the first target around 1.3200.

Wykres

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: the 4.1800 target was reached. The next is fall toward 4.10-4.13 range with a possible test of the lower band. A bullish signal is generated after moving above 4.22 level.

Wykres

Technical analysis USD/PLN: the target is still 3.05 on the pair (which was almost reached). We are down more than 0.15 PLN since the sell signal was generated. Shorts are preferred until we rise above 3.15.

Wykres

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the comeback under 3.43 negates the buy signal. Now the base case scenario is a range trade between 3.40-3.45. Sliding under 3.40 generates a sell signal with target at 3.33.

Wykres

Technical analysis GBP/PLN: the sell signal was generated with the first target at 4.93 and another at 4.85. The comeback to the bullish trend is generated above 5.03.

Wykres

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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