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Daily analysis 28.05.2014

, author:

Marcin Lipka

Solid US data didn't push the dollar much higher. Reports on Chechen soldiers participating in the Ukrainian conflict. 22nd rate cut in Hungary and another are on the horizon. Lower benchmark in Poland is “unrealistic” according, to the MPC member Zielińska-Głębocka.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • No major macro news that may affect the analyzed pairs.

The US. Ukraine. Hungary

We received another set of positive data from the US. Firstly, the durable goods orders were significantly higher than expected (+0.8% vs minus 0.8%). The reading was also above estimates if we exclude the transportation component (+0.1% vs consensus at minus 0.1). Additionally, both figures for March were revised upwards by around 1 percentage point.

Similarly, upbeat data were reported by Markit. Despite the fact that PMI indicator brings much less attention than its ISM counterpart, the services Purchasing Manager's Index was really solid. It rose to 58.4 points and recorded the highest reading since March 2012. While commenting the data, Tim Moor, senior economist at Markit wrote that “May's flash services PMI survey is a further signal that the US economy has regained momentum through the second quarter of the year". In result, we should expect that after three months of sluggish economy (and probably negative reading; tomorrow the data revision will be published), the following quarters should be much better.

Despite the fact that Ukrainian Petro Porshenko won the election in the first round, the situation in the east of the country hasn't calmed down. There are reports that dozens of people died in the clashes between the Kiev backed the army and separatists in Donetsk. It is also getting more clear that the Russian Federation has been directly engaged in the conflict. Both the “Financial Times” and “The New York Times” report that Donetsk mayor Aleksandr Lukyanchenko said that people who were wounded and stayed in hospitals are holding Russian passports and come from Moscow or Grozny. There are still no comments regarding the issue from Kremlin but it may be used to disconnect Moscow from the separatists' group (dropping both the unofficial and official support). On the other hand, if Russia remains a supplier of the rebels than the conflict may last for months.

Hungary lowered its benchmark for the 22nd time in the row. The cut was fairly benign (by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%) and widely expected, especially keeping in mind that the latest inflation readings showed a first y/y deflation since the fall of communism. We can also see that the CPI is much lower than the central bank expected in March when it was estimated in “Inflation Report” that the prices should rose around 0.7% y/y. This fact was probably one of the reason that Goldman Sachs (according to “The Wall Street Journal”) lowered its reference rate target for Hunger from 2.5% to 2.2%. It is possible that, despite expanding economy, the pressure to cut rates remains valid and any forint appreciation may quickly fade.

Summarizing, we had pretty bullish data from the US yesterday. They will probably pretty fast transfer into another solid set of indicator and finally also get into higher inflation. As a result, the greenback should benefit from the expanding economy (in the medium run). For the following days, however, the main theme on the market is still ECB rate decision and inflation data for the Euro area (both next week).

Again slightly weaker. Zielinska-Glebocka

The zloty is beginning another morning with slightly risk off sentiment. The EUR/PLN pair is heading toward 4.17 and USD/PLN is approaching 3.06. A slightly weaker Polish currency is mainly a result of tensions in the East of the continent. This hypothesis can be quickly verified by the Russian ruble behavior which dropped around 1.5% from the 4-month highs recorded last week.

Yesterday, in contrary to the dire news from Ukraine, we had some positive comments Polish MPC member. Alica Zielinska-Glebocka told Reuters that “fresh estimates inside the bank show that we may now be looking at growth of even 3.8 percent in 2014. And above 4 percent next year”. She also added that, despite low inflation, calls for rate cuts are “unrealistic”. Both comments should be supportive for the PLN in the medium term.

Summarizing, if the Ukrainian situation does not worsen significantly we should expect that the zloty remains near the current level. On the other hand, in case of some positive reports form our Eastern neighbor the EUR/PLN should return to 4.15-4.16 range and CHF/PLN may drop below 3.40.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.3650-1.3750 1.3750-1.3850 1.3550-1.3650
Range EUR/PLN 4.1400-4.1800 4.1400-4.1800 4.1400-4.1800
Range USD/PLN 3.0200-3.0600 3.0000-3.0400 3.0400-3.0800
Range CHF/PLN 3.4200-3.4600 3.4200-3.4600 3.4200-3.4600

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:

Range GBP/USD 1.6850-1.6950 1.6950-1.7050 1.6750-1.6850
Range GBP/PLN 5.1100-5.1500 5.1300-5.1700 5.0900-5.1300

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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