Conotoxia is the most effective forecaster of the EUR/PLN exchange rate in the world. These are the findings of the latest quarterly ranking published by the Bloomberg agency, computed based on monthly surveys. These include long-term forecasts sent by dozens of leading financial institutions from around the globe. Polish fintech won altogether 10 podium places in Q1 2024, of which it was the winner four times.
At the end of March, Conotoxia recorded the highest accuracy in the case of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. Regarding the second of the currency pairs included in the analysis - USD/PLN - it took 2nd place. The fintech's forecasts are particularly effective for emerging market currencies. Conotoxia topped the rankings for the Chinese yuan (on off-shore markets), the Mexican peso and the Russian rouble. Several high rankings for the other relevant currencies in the basket (the lira, the forint, the Romanian leu) translated into second place in the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) category.
"We are picking up the fruits of a positive outlook for the zloty. Our 2023 estimate was that the euro exchange rate would end the first quarter at 4.35 PLN. We expect the Polish currency to remain strong and stable. The EUR/PLN pair should gradually slide towards 4.25, extending the appreciation seen in recent months. The Polish zloty should benefit from the MPC's reluctance to cut interest rates, favourable fundamentals and the upcoming monetary easing by the Fed and the ECB," says Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at Conotoxia.
The latest results are in line with the long tradition of Conotoxia's highest places in the Bloomberg's rankings. In the past years, the global fintech from Poland has topped the accuracy rankings for individual currency pairs more than one hundred and twenty times. Last quarter, Conotoxia won 10 places on the podium, with 4 times as the winner.
Selected places of Conotoxia in the Bloomberg ranking after Q1 2024:
- 1st place in the EUR/PLN currency pair (PLN exchange rate in relation to the euro)
- 1st place in the USD/MXN currency pair (the exchange rate of the Mexican peso in relation to the US dollar)
- 1st position in the USD/CNY currency pair (the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan in relation to the US dollar on the off-shore market)
- 1st place in the USD/RUB currency pair (the exchange rate of the rouble against the US dollar)
- 2nd place in the USD/PLN currency pair (the exchange rate of the Polish zloty in relation to the US dollar)
- 2nd place in the EUR/HUF currency pair ( the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint in relation to the euro)
