Conotoxia was the world's most successful in forecasting the Polish zloty's exchange rate and the entire EMEA basket in 2023. These are the findings of the latest quarterly ranking published by Bloomberg. The Polish fintech won a total of 14 places on the podium in Q4 2023, with as many as 9 winning ones.
At the end of 2023, Conotoxia achieved the highest accuracy for the two PLN currency pairs considered, namely EUR/PLN and USD/PLN. Polish fintech's forecasts were mainly characterised by the most optimistic view of the zloty on the market, combined with the belief that a long-term downward trend would begin in the US currency's quotations.
Bartosz Sawicki, fintech's market analyst, was among the top forecasters for the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint or the Romanian leu in the past four quarters. As a result, Conotoxia, amidst strong international competition, was recognised as the institution most accurate in the world in forecasting the rates of the entire group of currencies of the EMEA region.
The apt prediction of the dollar's negative outlook against a number of major currencies also translated into a climb from the 3rd position held after Q3 2023 to 2nd place in Q4 2023 in the category of 13 major currencies (majors). Conotoxia was the world's most successful in forecasting the value of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Danish krone against the USD.
The latest results are part of a long tradition of Conotoxia's highest places in Bloomberg agency's rankings. In past years, the fintech from Poland has topped the accuracy rankings for individual currency pairs more than a hundred times. In the past quarter, Conotoxia won 14 places on the podium, with as many as 9 victories.
What prospects for the foreign exchange market are emerging in 2024? Interest rate cuts by the Fed, ECB or Bank of England should give emerging markets a helping hand. Investors have probably taken the leap, expecting cuts that are too quick and deep, which at some point may promote a cooling of the investor's current champagne mood. The downtrend in the US dollar may pause in the first quarter, but should resume in the second half of 2024. The EUR/USD rate should rise above 1.15 before the end of the year, as inflation and economic growth slow in the US, while the eurozone and China recover.
"The single currency should also outperform the pound and the recently record-strong franc. In the long term, the EUR and CHF are likely to gradually return to parity. The black horse, on the other hand, may turn out to be the undervalued Norwegian krone. The NOK will be supported by the calming of the bond markets after last year's turmoil and the late completion of interest rate hikes in Norway compared to the Fed or ECB, which will delay the timing of the first cuts there," Conotoxia's analyst predicts.
At the same time, the positive PLN's macro backdrop should remain in place, acting as an anchor during short-term market turbulences. "The Polish economy will accelerate, consumption will rebound, and the MPC will not be able to think about interest rate cuts. The balance of payments situation will remain favourable, and Poland will continue to attract a broad stream of foreign direct investment. Under these circumstances, the Polish zloty should continue its impressive rise in recent weeks and even strengthen slightly. We expect EUR/PLN to trade close to 4.25 in a year's time," estimates Bartosz Sawicki of Conotoxia.
Selected places of Conotoxia in Bloomberg ranking after Q4 2023:
- 1st place in the USD/PLN currency pair (the rate of the Polish zloty against the US dollar)
- 1st place in the EUR/PLN currency pair (the rate of the zloty against the euro)
- 1st place in the USD/HUF currency pair (the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint against the US dollar)
- 1st place in the USD/RON currency pair (the Romanian leu exchange rate against the US dollar)
- 1st place in the AUD/USD currency pair (the rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar)
- 1st place in the NZD/USD currency pair (the rate of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar)
- 2nd place in the USD/DKK currency pair (Danish krone exchange rate against the US dollar)
- 2nd place in the EUR/CZK currency pair (the Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to the euro)
- 3rd place in the EUR/HUF currency pair (the Hungarian forint exchange rate against the euro)
- 3rd place in the USD/CZK currency pair (the Czech koruna exchange rate against the US dollar)
