Afternoon analysis 15.04.2016:
Profit taking prevailed in the markets on Friday. Solid reports from China did not shore up the sentiment. The zloty steady at low level.
The Chinese numbers showed, that although the economy is slowing down, there is no crisis. In the first quarter the GDP growth stood at 6.7 percent on a yearly basis against the 6.8 percent that was expected. Moreover, the March report on production, retail sales and credit supply were quite good.
Earlier the report on industry sentiment and international trade had shown an ongoing improvement. However all problems have not been resolved, the transition of the economic model is well managed by the government and the central bank. Given the situation, a possible Chinese crisis is becoming less important risk factor to the economy.
Still, the Chinese optimism did not help the markets. Losses prevailed on the Friday session.
Information concerning China are important for the Federal Reserve. Tangible improvement in the second largest world economy may lead to rising probability of interest rate hikes and support the dollar. Nevertheless, this factor did not support the dollar.
In contrast, the factor which negatively affected the dollar was the report on industrial production. In March production dropped 0.6 percent on a monthly basis and the prior period data was revised down. Still, the dollar's drop was rather limited.
Also the commodity market was in the correction mode. It could have been caused by the uncertainty regarding the Doha meeting on Sunday. An agreement on output freeze is expected to be brokered on Sunday. However, there is still a lot of question marks on whether the final agreement will be signed.
If there is no agreement, the oil price may decline severely. A similar scenario would affect negatively commodity currencies. As a result, the broad market sentiment would be negatively affected.
Zloty was steady
The COS released the report on international trade. In the January-February period export increased 4.1 percent on a yearly basis. Import rose 3.2 percent. As a result, the trade surplus stood at 5.7 billion zlotys. The February report was clearly better that the prior release. The data confirmed an ongoing expansion in the first quarter.
On Friday the zloty stabilized after a poor week. In the last five days the zloty posted losses against all its major pairs. The zloty has been weaker than the forint. The situation may suggest that the Polish currency will be weaker in the near term.
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