Daily analysis 31.03.2015:
More and more disturbance in the matter of Greece. No decisions to be made until next week. Increasing pressure on the drop of oil, and currencies related resources' exporter, before expected understanding with Iran. The zloty remains stable, although in case of a sudden deterioration of sentiments PLN can slightly weaken, also against the euro.
Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
- 15.45 CET: Chicago PMI from USA (estimations for March: 51.7 points).
- 16.00 CET: Consumers' trust index for March (estimations: 96.4).
It would seem, that the Greek issue has been in game for such a long time, it should not have an influence on the currency market. However, the behaviour of prime minister Tsipras' administration still causes tension among investors and overvalues the euro.
The “final” project of reforms, which has been announced for a few days now, appeared again to be a meaningless document, prepared only to buy some time. Basing on the information that Bloomberg gained from anonymous representatives of the EU, the Greeks do not present any crucial offers. They are only concentrating on the fight against tax abuse, and disposable influences, e.g. the sale of television licenses. There are no reforms of retirements, labour market or privatisation.
Additionally, during yesterday's few hour long debate in parliament, even a part of the reigning coalition was against the cursory reforms. As a result, Tsipras summoned the opposition to support his propositions. As if that was not enough, today the TASS agency published an interview with the Greek prime minister in which he clearly appears to be against the sanctions towards Russia. Besides, next week (on 8th of April) Tsipras flies to Moscow, where he will meet with Putin and Miedviediev among others.
The Greek “games” are constantly taken as an inner struggle, but the period without understanding extends, and it obviously increases the risk of more serious tensions. This on the other hand, quickly converts to the euro's depreciation. A similar situation can be observed during the forthcoming days, because the matter of Athens will not be solved before Easter.
Understanding with Iran
For many weeks, our analyses have informed you about the upcoming understanding with Iran. The negotiations carried on for one and a half years, and they are most likely to end today, with the signing of the framework project. The final document will be finished by the end of June.
The market is mostly interested in two matters. The first is, how quickly Iran will be able to increase the production and export of oil. It is estimated that during the next few months, it can be a few hundred thousand barrels per day. The second matter, is the case of oil gathered by Iran in supertankers.
Teheran has probably over 35 million barrels which are kept on water. It is more or less 40% of the world's daily extraction, and e.g. approximately a 10 week supply generated by Poland. It is also worth comparing it with estimations of oil overproduction. It currently amounts to approximately between 1 and 1.5 million barrels per day. These are crucial values.
Thus, both matters should lay weight on the oil in short (tankers) and mid term (speculations concerning the increase of production). As a result, the currencies of countries dependant on income from oil export, should find themselves under pressure. Among them are the Canadian dollar, krona and rouble. As far as the Russian currency goes, the decrease of Brent below 50 dollars, should quickly cause an increase of USD/RUB above 60.
Few words about the foreign market
The capital's inflow towards the dollar, is related to extra problems of Greece, and the drop in oil. It causes a clear descent of EUR/USD below 1.075. At this moment, the increase correction is seriously endangered, and only very weak data from the American labour market can cause a visible wear off of “the buck”. Due to that, a relatively fast test of recent minimums in the area of 1.05-1.06 is not excluded.
A will for enforcement, but the sentiment stands in the way
The domestic currency obviously has an appetite for another wave of enforcement in relation to the euro, and relatively fast test of the 4.00 level on EUR/PLN. It cannot be fulfilled due to the disturbance related with Greece, and general enforcement of the American dollar, during which the currencies of other emerging markets also weaken.
While observing the behaviour of the zloty and forint, one can expect that when the situation on the main currency pair will stabilize, the fall in the area of 4.00 can be relatively quick. Additionally, due to yesterday's statement of Bratkowski, any speculations about a possible decrease of interest rates, are currently unjustified. This should ensure the foreign wallet capital, about EUR/PLN further direction.
On the other hand, we still cannot see any chances for a cleared appreciation of the national currency in relation to the franc or the dollar. The Swiss are constantly unwilling to influence the currency market more aggressively. There are also no signs for a longer turning of the trend on “the buck”.
In the short term, it is worth remembering about tomorrow's PMI reading from Poland. Every reading above 55 points (economists' estimations are 55.3) should be positively received by the market, and show the improving condition of the national industry. On the other hand, only the publication below 54 points can slightly slow down the appetite for the national currency.
Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/USD rate:
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