Новости

The zloty index by Cinkciarz.pl. June 2015. Part 1

, автор:

Piotr Lonczak

In May, the weakening zloty was improving the competitiveness of export on almost every market. Even though the advantageous tendency for the exporters lasts from the beginning of spring, in long perspective the Polish currency still remains relatively strong in relation to the currencies of the most important trading partners.

In May, the price competitiveness of the Polish export has improved in relation to April on almost every market. The only exception is the increase of the Cinkciarz.pl Index for the emerging markets countries (excluding Russia and Ukraine). The same tendencies are indicated by the real indexes.

A look at price competitiveness of the Polish export from the last year's perspective, shows that we are dealing with a nominal increase of the zloty's value on all markets. On the other hand, the real indexes – which include the difference in inflation – show a wide improvement of Polish export's competitiveness. The only exception is the competitiveness on the markets of central-eastern Europe, and the Scandinavian countries.

The currency crisis that touched Russia and Ukraine in the turn of the year, has lead to a very big weakening of the Polish export's competitiveness, in case of the central-eastern Europe countries. In forthcoming time, this factor will impact negatively on the quantity of export on this region's markets. However, when looking at it from the perspective of single countries – for example Czech Republic – quite good results of the exporters are visible.

Cinkciarz.pl Index for the middle-eastern Europe countries, has indicated a decrease of the zloty's value for three months. In case of a real index, we are observing a similar tendency. In real presentation, the zloty has enforced in relation to the last year by 2.1 percent (in January it was 6.2 percent).

Even though the results achieved by the exporters in the first quarter of 2015 are optimistic, one can indicate a few disadvantageous events. First of all, we are dealing with a decrease of export to the Scandinavian countries. This trading partner's significance equals the United Kingdom. At the same time we are observing a significant enforcement of the zloty to the Scandinavian currencies, which is one of the reasons of the above situation.

Another matter is a very strong increase of Germany's significance, as the most important trading partner. The successes achieved by the Polish companies behind our western boarder are very satisfying. However, basing on just one trading partner brings a potential danger from the perspective of the whole economy. This matter will be discussed wider in the further part of this report.

Conclusion: Cinkciarz.pl Indexes and the changes of indexes

The nominal index
Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-03-01 147.9 99.9 106 105 102.5 99.8 139.2 95.6
2015-04-01 144.1 102.3 107.2 106 103.1 102.3 135.9 97.8
2015-05-01 141.4 101.2 106 104.7 101.7 100.4 134.4 98.5

Chart: Value of the nominal index. Data: Cinkciarz.pl


Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-03-01 17.7 1.2 2.1 2.7 2.5 4.5 11.2 -9.2
2015-04-01 13.6 3.4 2.8 3.1 2.8 6.1 7.5 -6.8
2015-05-01 12.6 2.5 42 2.2 1.9 4.4 7.8 -5.5

Chart: Change of the nominal index year to year (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl


Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-03-01 -4.4 0.7 -1 -1.2 -1.2 0.4 -5.1 -1
2015-04-01 -2.6 2.4 1.2 1 0.5 2.6 -2.4 2.3
2015-05-01 -1.9 -1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.9 -1.1 0.8

Chart: Change of the nominal index month to month (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl


The real index
Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-03-01 99 94.4 98.8 98.9 97.2 105.7 90.3 80
2015-04-01 95.5 96.7 99.8 99.8 98.1 108.6 87.1 81.8
2015-05-01 93.7 95.7 98.7 98.5 96.8 106.6 86.1 82.4

Chart: Value of the real index. Data: Cinkciarz.pl


Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-03-01 6.2 0.2 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 2.5 0 -10.7
2015-04-01 2 2.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 4.4 -3.9 -8.5
2015-05-01 2.1 1.7 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 2.9 -3 -7.2

Chart: Change of the real index year to year (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl


Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-03-01 -5.5 0.6 -1.6 -1.8 -1.6 0.4 -6.3 -0.9
2015-04-01 -1.9 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 2.8 -3.6 2.3
2015-05-01 -1.9 -1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.9 -1.2 0.6

Chart: Change of the real index month to month (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl


Resume: export and contribution in export divided on the baskets

Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-01-01 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 -2.6 -0.3 0.4
2015-02-01 -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 -0.3 -0.9 0.1
2015-03-01 0.1 1.1 0.9 1 0.9 0.5 -0.1 1.2

Chart: Change of export month to month (in percent). Data: GUS; Analysis: Cinkciarz.pl


Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-01-01 -2.1 7.7 4.1 4.6 5.4 -2 -4 -8.6
2015-02-01 -2.9 7.3 4 4.6 5.4
-2.8
-4.8 8.4
2015-03-01 -3 7.5 4.2 4.6 5.3 -1.7 -4.6 8.8

Chart: Change of export year to year (in percent). Data: GUS; Analysis: Cinkciarz.pl


Period / Index CEE CEE_NO_CR MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 SCAN EME EME_NO_CR
2015-01-01 23.3 16.2 90.8 75.6 54.3 6.8 16.2 10
2015-02-01 23 16.2 90.7 75.6 54.3
6.7
15.9 10
2015-03-01 22.8 16.2 90.7 75.6 54.3 6.7 15.8 10

Chart: Contribution of the basket in general export (in percent). Data: GUS; Analysis: Cinkciarz.pl


Content of the currency baskets

Country Currency MAY_33 MAY_16 MAY_7 CEE CEE (bez RU, UA, BY) SCAN EME EME (bez RU, UA)
Austria EURPLN yes              
Belgium EURPLN yes yes            
Belarus PLNBYR yes     yes        
China CNYPLN yes yes yes       yes yes
Czech Republic CZKPLN yes yes yes yes yes      
Denmark DKKPLN yes         yes    
Estonia EURPLN yes     yes yes   yes yes
Finland EURPLN yes         yes    
France EURPLN yes yes yes          
Spain EURPLN yes yes            
Holland EURPLN yes yes            
India INRPLN yes           yes yes
Ireland EURPLN yes              
Japan JPYPLN yes              
Canada CADPLN yes              
South Korea KRWPLN yes yes            
Lithuania EURPLN yes     yes yes   yes yes
Latvia EURPLN yes     yes yes   yes yes
Germany EURPLN yes yes yes          
Norway NOKPLN yes         yes    
Russia RUBPLN yes yes yes yes     yes  
Romania RONPLN yes     yes yes   yes yes
Slovakia EURPLN yes yes   yes yes      
USA USDPLN yes yes            
Switzerland CHFPLN yes              
Sweden SEKPLN yes yes       yes    
Taiwan TWDPLN yes              
Turkey TRYPLN yes           yes yes
Ukraine PLNUAH yes yes   yes     yes  
Georgia HUFPLN yes yes   yes yes   yes yes
United Kingdom GBPPLN yes yes yes          
Vietnam VNDPLN yes              
Italy EURPLN yes yes yes          

Chart: Content of country's baskets. Source: Cinkciarz.pl


Part 2 of the report



Вышеизложенный комментарий не является рекомендацией в понимании Постановления министра финансов от 19 октября 2005 года. Он был составлен с информационной целью и не является основанием для принятия инвестиционных решений. Ни автор работы, ни Cinkciarz.pl ООО не несут отвественность за инвестиционные решения, принятые на основании информации, которая приведена в данном комментарии. Копирование и распространение данной работы без письменного согласия Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o. запрещено.

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